Articles – Page 5 – John Humphreys

Farmers, miners & private property rights

_{Published in Menzies House blog on 15 August 2011 under the title “Farmers, miners & private property rights“}

The debate about mining on agricultural land has long frustrated me. While one side argues to help the “farmers” and the other side wants to help the “miners” it seems everybody has abandoned the most obvious solution — clear allocation of private property rights. As Nobel prize winner Ronald Coase explained, conflicts over resources can be solved by allocating private property rights and then allowing trade so that the resources end up going where they are most valuable.

Runaway debt & unsustainable welfare

_{Published in Menzies House blog on 8 August 2011 under the title “Economic troubles & the decline of social democracy“}

The most surprising thing about the economic troubles around the world is that they are considered surprising. The economic story is actually quite simple — western governments around the world have been consistently spending more than they have, and just hoping that continued economic growth would save them. The very obvious problem with this approach is that when debt gets too high while you have an economic slowdown, then the government faces a budget crisis. Then you have Greece getting bailed out and America extending their government credit card from $14.3 to $17.7 trillion.

But that’s only the start. Bailing out the Greek government does not solve the underlying problem of excessive European debt. And going into more debt does not solve the underlying problem of excessive American debt. These problems are currently being delayed, but not solved.

Unpacking Gillard’s income tax changes

_{Published in Menzies House blog on 10 July 2011 under the title “A closer look at the income tax changes“}

The government has announced their plans for a new carbon tax, and the related compensation payments and tax cuts. The good news is that the government is increasing the tax-free threshold and winding down the confusing and misleading “low-income tax offset” (LITO). Next year the tax-free threshold will increase to $18,839.

Unfortunately, the government continues to hide the actual marginal tax rates by reporting the LITO and medicare levy separately from the “headline” marginal tax rates. The actual marginal tax rates for 2011, 2012 and 2015 are at the bottom of this post. As you can see, they are as confusing as ever.

Benefits-cost analysis of carbon tax

_{Published in The Drum ABC Online on 20 June 2011 under the title “Carbon tax and evidence-based policy”.}

I accept what I see as the mainstream science on climate change. The world has had a warming trend in recent decades, this is partly caused by humans, and I expect it to continue into the future.

I am comfortable with the IPCC range of estimates of warming, which has a mid-point estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial temperatures (ie 2.1C above today). I hope the sceptical scientists are right and that warming will be lower, but I find the IPCC estimates plausible and an appropriate starting point for analysis.

Standing up for smokers’ rights

_{Published in The Drum ABC Online on 1 June 2011 under the title “It’s time to stand up for smokers’ rights”.}

Perhaps it is inevitable that people will always need to find a minority to hate. Whether it is based on race, or sex, or sexual preference, or lifestyle choice, or language, or religion, or personal habits… the instinct to discriminate, to distrust “different” people, and to enforce conformity is a constant theme throughout history and throughout the world. If this instinct was purely personal, then it would not be a big issue. People could simply choose to associate with those people they prefer, and we could all live in peace. But sadly, many groups want to use the government to force their bigotry on others.